According to this Pew study, when the 116th Congress convenes in January, at least 26 House members will be Millennials (i.e., born between 1981 and 1996), up from only five at the start of the current Congress in January 2017 and six just before the Nov. 6 midterms. More than a fifth (20) of the 91 freshmen members-elect are Millennials, and 14 of those 20 are Democrats – including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, at 29 the youngest woman ever elected to Congress.
Through the prism of the real estate market and homeownership in black neighborhoods, this Brookings Institution report attempts to address the question: What is the cost of racial bias? This report seeks to understand how much money majority-black communities are losing in the housing market stemming from racial bias, finding that owner-occupied homes in black neighborhoods are undervalued by $48,000 per home on average, amounting to $156 billion in cumulative losses.
The Trump Administration released the 4th National Climate Assessment report last Friday. From the About page:
The Global Change Research Act of 1990 mandates that the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) deliver a report to Congress and the President no less than every four years that “1) integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program…; 2) analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and 3) analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.”1
The Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) fulfills that mandate in two volumes. This report, Volume II, draws on the foundational science described in Volume I, the Climate Science Special Report (CSSR).2 Volume II focuses on the human welfare, societal, and environmental elements of climate change and variability for 10 regions and 18 national topics, with particular attention paid to observed and projected risks, impacts, consideration of risk reduction, and implications under different mitigation pathways. Where possible, NCA4 Volume II provides examples of actions underway in communities across the United States to reduce the risks associated with climate change, increase resilience, and improve livelihoods.
This assessment was written to help inform decision-makers, utility and natural resource managers, public health officials, emergency planners, and other stakeholders by providing a thorough examination of the effects of climate change on the United States.
For background, see What is the National Climate Assessment and Where Did It Come From, Forbes, Nov. 26, 2018.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a report, suggesting that we are currently on track for around 3 degrees Celsius of warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions. The authors found that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the current rate, the atmosphere will warm up by as much as 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above preindustrial levels by 2040, inundating coastlines and intensifying droughts and poverty. The IPCC authors promise that we will see coastal cities swallowed by the sea, global food shortages, and $54 trillion in climate-associated costs as soon as 2040.
H/T to Freedom to Tinker for calling attention to Securing the Vote: Protecting American Democracy released by the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine. Securing the Vote covers cybervulnerabilities in U.S. election systems and how to defend them. It lays out the scientific basis for its conclusions and the 55 recommendations. — Joe
The Republic At Risk: American Democracy One Year Into The Trump Administration is a joint report issued by Protect Democracy and Stand Up Ideas. It marks one year into the Trump presidency and asks a simple yet critical question: how are America’s democratic institutions holding up? — Joe
“The purpose of impeachment is not to punish for past crimes, but to remove from office a dangerous official who threatens the rule of law and the republic itself,” wrote Ron Fein, John Bonifaz, and Ben Clements in their Take Care blog post about their new white paper, The Legal Case for a Congressional Investigation on Whether to Impeach President Donald J. Trump (Free Speech for People, Dec. 6, 2017).
The paper’s purpose is to summarizes the legal grounds for Congress to pass a resolution calling on the House Committee on the Judiciary to investigate whether sufficient grounds exist for the impeachment of President Trump. From the abstract:
President Trump’s abuse of power and corruption of the presidency are far worse than the Watergate scandal and the abuses that gave rise to the proposed articles of impeachment against President Richard Nixon that were reported out of the Judiciary Committee of the House of Representatives shortly before Nixon resigned. Abuse of power, corruption, and the threat to our republic are manifest today. They require a thorough and deliberate investigation in the House of Representatives. The factual summaries of the grounds for impeachment are based on publicly reported facts, including statements made by President Trump himself, and testimony to Congress. The legal analysis is based on the text, structure, and history of the Constitution and federal law, and legal and political precedent.
In the white paper, the authors identify eight impeachable offenses that could be grounds for a congressional investigation:
- Obstructing justice;
- Violating the Foreign Emoluments Clause and Domestic Emoluments Clause of the United States Constitution;
- Conspiring with others to commit crimes against the United States involving the solicitation and intended receipt by his presidential campaign of things of value from a foreign government and other foreign nationals, and to conceal those violations;
- Advocating illegal violence, giving aid and comfort to white supremacists and neo-Nazis, and undermining constitutional protections of equal protection under the law;
- Abusing the pardon power;
- Recklessly threatening nuclear war against foreign nations, undermining and subverting the essential diplomatic functions and authority of federal agencies, including the United States Department of State, and engaging in other conduct that grossly and wantonly endangers the peace and security of the United States, its people and people of other nations, by heightening the risk of hostilities involving weapons of mass destruction, with reckless disregard for the risk of death and grievous bodily harm;
- Directing or endeavoring to direct law enforcement, including the Department of Justice and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, to investigate and prosecute political adversaries and others, for improper purposes not justified by any lawful function of his office, thereby eroding the rule of law, undermining the independence of law enforcement from politics, and compromising the constitutional right to due process of law; and
- Undermining the freedom of the press.
Recommended. — Joe
Here’s the abstract for Dominique Guellec and Caroline Paunov’s Digital Innovation and the Distribution of Income (Nov. 2017 NBER Working Paper No. 23987):
Income inequalities have increased in most OECD countries over the past decades; particularly the income share of the top 1%. In this paper we argue that the growing importance of digital innovation – new products and processes based on software code and data – has increased market rents, which benefit disproportionately the top income groups. In line with Schumpeter’s vision, digital innovation gives rise to ”winner-take-all” market structures, characterized by higher market power and risk than was the case in the previous economy of tangible products. The cause for these new market structures is digital non-rivalry, which allows for massive economies of scale and reduces costs of innovation. The latter stimulates higher rates of creative destruction, leading to higher risk as only marginally superior products can take over the entire market, hence rendering market shares unstable. Instability commands risk premia for investors. Market rents accrue mainly to investors and top managers and less to the average workers, hence increasing income inequality. Market rents are needed to incentivize innovation and compensate for its costs, but beyond a certain level they become detrimental. Public policy may stimulate innovation by reducing ex ante the market conditions which favor rent extraction from anti-competitive practices.
Pew’s political typology sorts Americans into cohesive, like-minded groups based on their values and beliefs, as well as their partisan affiliation. See the report, Political Typology Reveals Deep Fissures on the Right and Left, this story, and The Partisan Divide on Political Values Grows Even Wider. Are you a Core Conservation, Market Skeptic, Opportunity Democrat? If interested, take Pew’s political typology quiz. — Joe
From the executive summary of Faking News: Fraudulent News and the Fight for Truth:
Faking News: Fraudulent News and the Fight for Truth examines the rise of fraudulent news, defined here as demonstrably false information that is being presented as a factual news report with the intention to deceive the public, and the related erosion of public faith in traditional journalism. The report identifies proposed solutions at the intersection of technology, journalism, and civil society to empower news consumers with better skills and tools to help them process the torrents of information they see online.
Faking News looks at how the spread of fraudulent news has been facilitated by Facebook, Google, and Twitter, and the ways each company is responding to the problem. The report also discusses how traditional journalism has in part contributed to the breakdown of public trust in the media—through partisan reporting, the blurring of fact and opinion, a lack of transparency around policies and procedures, and even honest mistakes, among other reasons—and what newsrooms are doing to rebuild that trust and improve the accuracy and transparency of their reporting processes. Civil-society-led initiatives, including professional fact-checkers and news literacy education programs round out PEN America’s examination of proposed solutions to the fraudulent news crisis.
H/T to beSpacific. — Joe
On October 10th, the Brookings Institution released Presidential Obstruction of Justice: The Case of Donald J. Trump (Oct. 10, 2017). From the press release:
In this paper, we break down and analyze the question of whether President Trump may have obstructed justice and explain the criminal and congressional actions that could follow from an obstruction investigation. Addressing the possibility of criminal behavior by President Trump and the complicated issues it raises is not a task that we take lightly. Dissecting allegations of criminality leveled against an individual who has been duly elected president and who has sworn to preserve, protect, and defend our Constitution is an inherently solemn task. But it is our hope that by presenting a rigorous legal analysis of the potential case against the president, we will help the American people and their representatives understand the contours of the issues, regardless of whether it is eventually litigated in a court of law, the halls of Congress, or the court of public opinion.
Recommended. — Joe
In a recent Brookings white paper, several legal scholars took an in-depth look at the Foreign Emoluments Clause and the constitutional violations that result from President Trump’s continuing acceptance of benefits from foreign powers. This white paper, The Domestic Emoluments Clause: Its Text, Meaning, and Application to Donald J. Trump, takes a similar look at the Domestic Emoluments Clause, discussing the text and history of the Clause, how it should be interpreted, and what it means in the context of President Trump’s vast business holdings.
Based on this examination, the Constitutional Accountability Center concludes that President Trump is likely violating one of the Constitution’s most important provisions—a safeguard designed to prevent corruption and self-dealing in our highest office. And that should not be allowed to continue. — Joe
Search and Politics: The Uses and Impacts of Search in Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the United States reports the results of an online poll of Internet users about how they use search, social media, and other important media to get information about political candidates, issues, and politics generally. From the abstract:
Global debate over the impact of algorithms and search on shaping political opinions has increased following dramatic election results in Europe and the US. Powerful images of the Internet enabling access to a global treasure trove of information have shifted to worries over whether those who use search engines and social media are being fed inaccurate, false, or politically targeted information that distorts public opinion. There are serious questions over whether biases embedded in the algorithms that drive search engines and social media have major political consequences, such as creating filter bubbles or echo chambers. For example, do search engines and social media provide people with information that aligns with their beliefs and opinions or do they challenge them to consider countervailing perspectives? Most generally, the predominant concern is do these media have a major impact on public opinion and political viewpoints, and if so, for the better or worse.
According to John Launchbury, director of DARPA’s Information Innovation Office, the development of artificial intelligence is progressing in three waves: handcrafted knowledge, statistical learning and contextual adaptation. In the below video, Launchbury explains his theory. From the YouTube description:
John Launchbury … attempts to demystify AI–what it can do, what it can’t do, and where it is headed. Through a discussion of the “three waves of AI” and the capabilities required for AI to reach its full potential, John provides analytical context to help understand the roles AI already has played, does play now, and could play in the future.
The video is a companion communication for Launchbury’s stack, A DARPA Perspective on Artificial Intelligence. Recommended. — Joe
Hat tip Stephen Abram’s blog post for Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project’s Books, libraries, and the changing digital landscape stack that was presented by Kathryn Zickuhr. — Joe